Remittances sent by Mexicans living in the United States to relatives back home will rise 5.3 percent this year, but the amount in pesos will be lower due to devaluation and inflation, BBVA Bancomer said in a research report.
"Remittances, according to the BBVA Research base scenario, will register growth in dollars of 5.3 percent, but the exchange rate and inflation will adversely affect the families that receive them," the Mexican unit of Spanish banking giant BBVA said.
Mexico received a total of $21.27 billion in remittances in 2010, a figure that was up just 0.12 percent from the prior year.
The record for remittances was sent in 2007, when a total of $23.97 billion flowed into Mexico.
Remittances will "perform better" in 2012, but they are not likely to reach the 2007 level, for which "we will have to wait until 2013 or 2014," BBVA Research said.
The research report also examined immigration trends, concluding that the number of Mexican immigrants living in the United States rose by just 60,000 to 11.8 million from 2007 to 2010 due to the recession and tighter border controls.
The flow of migrants will continue to rise until the numbers reach pre-recession levels once the U.S. economic slump ends, BBVA Research said.
Mexicans did not return home in large numbers despite the severe recession in the United States, but there was a change in the flow within that country, with migrants moving from Florida, Arizona and Georgia to New Mexico, Texas and North Carolina, BBVA Research said.